Volume 4, Number 2, 2004 Abstracts
© Copyright Erlbaum 2003

The Contributions of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
Hersh Shefrin-Santa Clara University
Meir Statman-Santa Clara University

Does Analyst Optimism About Future Earnings Distort Stock Prices?
Stephen Ciccone-University of New Hampshire

Monthly returns to firms with optimistic expectations are 1.5% lower versus firms with pessimistic expectations, while annual buy-and-hold returns to firms with optimistic expectations are 20% lower. The optimistic component of stock prices lingers months after the optimism is revealed to the market. It also exists separately from the component related to analyst forecast dispersion. The possibility that forecast dispersion is related to transitory versus permanent earnings is proposed.

Anchoring and Psychological Barriers in Foreign Exchange Markets
Frank Westerhoff-University of Osnabrueck

This paper develops a simple behavioral exchange rate model in which investor perception of the fundamental value is anchored to the nearest round number. Traders adjust their anchors in two ways. Some believe that exchange rates move toward (perceived) fundamentals, while others bet on a continuation of the current exchange rate trend. The behavior of the traders causes complex dynamics. Since the exchange rate tends to circle around its perceived fundamental value, the foreign exchange market is persistently misaligned. Central authorities have the opportunity to reduce such distortions by pushing the exchange rate to less biased anchors, but to achieve this, they have to break psychological barriers between anchors.

A Behavioral Decision-Making Modeling Approach Toward Hedging Services
Joost M. E. Pennings-University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Wageningen University, The Netherlands
Math J. J. M. Candel-Maastricht University
Thorsten M. Egelkraut-University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by financial institutions to improve the design of their financial products. The key elements of the model are related to the characteristics of the owner-managers, thereby exploring the decision units' evaluations of the hedging services provided by futures exchanges. Using structural equation models and data from 467 owner-managers, obtained by means of computer- assisted personal interviews, we find that the elements "exercising entrepreneurial freedom," "perceived performance," and the "owner-manager's reference price" determine their attitude toward using futures. These elements are related to innovativeness, risk attitude, and level of understanding of futures markets.

Portfolio Composition Choice: A Behavioral Approach
Uri Benzion-The Technion-Israel Institute of Technology and Ben-Gurion University
Joseph Yagil-Haifa University and Columbia University

This experimental study investigates portfolio composition choice for different types of financial assets and different levels of wealth. For a group of financially sophisticated executive MBA students with work experience in capital markets, the findings of this study indicate that the proportion of wealth invested in risky assets increases with wealth for all portfolio compositions examined, and increases with the degree of asset risk. This proportion is found to be as much as three times higher for common stocks than for options: For stock portfolios, it increases from 33% to 44% over the five wealth levels examined, and for options it increases from 11% to 17%. These results may imply a decreasing rel w proportions of their wealth in risky assets possess the following characteristics: they do not invest in options in real life; they sometimes buy lottery tickets; they assign a higher risk level to options than to common stocks; they are female; and they are employed.

The Effects of Attraction on Investment Decisions
David L. Schwarzkopf-Bentley College

The attraction effect occurs when an inferior item changes a decision-maker's perception of the relationship between other available alternatives, contrary to the expectations of rational decision-making. This study presents the first evidence that this effect, which has appeared persistently in consumer research, can influence investment decisions. The study also finds two distinct patterns of reaction to the inferior item as a sign of "cluster attraction"-a way of spreading investment risk. Evidence of attraction means that the values of important facets of corporate reporting may not be stable across an investor's decisions, but may depend on the items presently available for investment. Results of an experiment conducted with approximately 100 graduate students with investing experience or interest show that the investor's perceived values of reported financial or non-financial performance, quality of earnings, and information source reliability are subject to trade-offs and can be altered by the composition of the decision set, rather than by any intrinsic change in the investment candidate itself. The discussion highlights the implications of these findings for an understanding of how investors regard the qualities of financial reporting.

RESEARCH ELSEWHERE
Robert A. Olsen-California State University

BOOK REVIEWS
Robert A. Olsen-California State University
Richard L. Peterson-University of Texas at Austin